Three To See, Madrid Day 10: Zhang vs. Karatsev; Sabalenka vs. Sakkari; Swiatek vs. Kudermetova

WATCH: Zhang made history with his quarterfinal run at the Mutua Madrid Open.

Zhang Zhizhen vs. Aslan Karatsev

Two of the week’s surprise performers will be first up in Santana on Thursday. Before Madrid, Zhang was 0-3 on the year, and Karatsev 4-7, but here they are with a chance to make a Masters 1000 semifinal. Karatsev, a qualifier, has already won six matches, including one over No. 2 seed and countryman Daniil Medvedev on Tuesday. If anything, Zhang’s road has been more spectacular. He has beaten three seeds, Denis Shapovalov, Cam Norrie, and Taylor Fritz, all in third-set tiebreakers. Which Cinderella run will come to an end on Thursday?

They’ve played once, on hard courts in Astana last fall, and Zhang won 6-1 in the third set. Karatsev is the more accomplished player overall, with three career titles, and probably a more natural clay-courter. He might be the safer pick on a different week. But this week Zhang has played with the energy and calm of someone who won’t be denied. Winner: Zhang

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Maria Sakkari

After a week of upsets and oddities in both draws in Madrid, this feels like an “order is restored” type of semifinal. We have the No. 2 seed and 2021 champion in Sabalenka, and we have a former No. 3, current No. 9, and two-time Grand Slam semifinalist in Sakkari. Each woman has had her hot streaks and slumps over the last three or four years. Right now, though, both seem to be in a good place with their games and their confidence.

Sabalenka is in an especially good place; she’s close to unbeatable, in fact. After losing to Sakkari two straight times, she beat her in their only match of this season so far, 6-2, 6-3, in the Indian Wells semifinals. Sakkari does have three wins in eight tries against Sabalenka, but when they both play at similar levels, Sabalenka has the edge in power and accuracy on every shot. Winner: Sabalenka

Iga Swiatek vs. Veronika Kudermetova

“I know her game a little bit,” Swiatek said of Kudermetova on Wednesday. She does know it, and she seems to like it. The Pole and the Russian have faced off three times, and the collective game score is 36-8 in Swiatek’s favor. It doesn’t look as if Kudermetova is gaining any ground, either. The last time they played, three months ago in Doha, Swiatek won 6-0, 6-1. That match was also a semifinal, so Kudermetova was presumably playing decent tennis that week.

She’s also playing decent, and more important, stubborn tennis, this week. Kudermetova has won all four of her matches in Madrid in three sets. That includes a third-set tiebreaker over Daria Kasatkina, and a 6-4 third set over No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula. That says a lot for her determination, but it takes more than determination to track down Swiatek’s shots, and find a way to counter them. Her last opponent, Petra Martic, had a lot of trouble with both of those things, and Kudermetova likely will as well. Winner: Swiatek