Three To See, Madrid Day 9: Pegula vs. Kudermetova; Alcaraz vs. Khachanov; Swiatek vs. Martic

WATCH: Pegula needed three sets to defeat 2022 Roland Garros semifinalist Martina Trevisan in Madrid on Monday.

Jessica Pegula vs. Veronika Kudermetova

Pegula and Kudermetova have their similarities. They both have sharp, flat, on-the-rise ground strokes, but neither has a reliable knockout blow. If they were boxers, they’d be middleweights who like to mix it up, counterpunch, and use their opponent’s attack against them. The American is a hard worker and good competitor who has earned every step she’s taken up the ladder. But the same might be said about the Russian, who never takes a point off.

What we can we expect from their first meeting? There will probably be a lot of extended rallies, with both women constantly looking for openings. Pegula is ranked 10 spots higher at No. 3, and she made the final Madrid last year. For her part, Kudermetova has won three three-set matches to get here, and survived a third-set tiebreaker against Daria Kasatkina on Monday. She’ll make it as difficult as possible. Winner: Pegula

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Karen Khachanov

On paper, this one looks like it will be all Alcaraz, all the time. He’s the top seed, he’s the defending champion, he’s at home, and he’ll be trying to give himself a chance to play on his 20th birthday on Friday. Best of all from the Spaniard’s point of view, he’s played Khachanov twice on clay and he’s routed him both times. In five sets, the Russian has won just 11 games.

Does he have a chance of doing any better this time? Khachanov can muscle the ball with anyone. He’s made himself into a better big-stage player in recent years. And he doesn’t mind a hostile audience. Alcaraz, after tuning up Alexander Zverev without any trouble, may also be due for a dip in concentration at some point, especially in a match where he’s such a heavy favorite. But if he loses his form, chances are he’ll find it again in time. That’s what he does. Winner: Alcaraz

Iga Swiatek vs. Petra Martic

With Swiatek, every tiny sign of weakness or vulnerability becomes fodder for fan speculation. She obliged us with a couple of them in her last match, against Ekaterina Alexandrova. First, she lost her serve early in the opening set. Then she dropped the second set entirely, before restoring order in the third, 6-3.

If that counts as vulnerability, the next question is: Can Martic exploit it? It seems unlikely. While the Croatian likes clay and has been ranked as high as No. 14, she’s 32 years old and ranked 33rd. She did record a good win in her last round, over Barbora Krejcikova, and she is a smooth hitter and mover. But she’ll need more weapons than that to counter the Swiatek attack. Winner: Swiatek