Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Jelena Ostapenko vs. Elena Rybakina, Rome

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On Wednesday, Elena Rybakina looked like she was on her way to a straight-sets loss against world No. 1 Iga Swiatek at the Italian Open. But the 2022 Wimbledon champion forced a deciding set by winning a tiebreaker, before Swiatek was forced to retire in that third set with a right leg injury. That sets up a semifinal collision between Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko. And while getting past Swiatek—by any means necessary—is significant, we don't think Rybakina is out of the proverbial woods just yet.

While Rybakina is the higher ranked player between these two, it’s a little hard to trust her as a favorite in this match. Sure, the Kazakhstani has looked great against all non-Swiatek opponents over the course of this tournament, but these types of slow clay courts aren’t quite for her game. Rybakina’s mobility is one of her biggest weaknesses at this point in her career, and she can look a bit awkward when trying to cover the clay. That leaves her vulnerable in these types of tournaments, and that’s why we like Ostapenko as an underdog in this spot.

Ostapenko has had quite the run in Rome thus far, as she has knocked off Barbora Krejcikova, Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa. Ostapenko’s game can probably best be described as “organized chaos,” as she simply tracks the ball down and tries to rip winners. She can rack up unforced errors, but it also allows her to overpower her opponents—and frustrate them. And when the ball is bouncing slowly on clay, it really puts Ostapenko’s opponents in a tough place. If the ball sits up and Ostapenko has time, the Latvian is very likely to hit a tremendous shot.

In this specific matchup, it’s just hard not to like Ostapenko’s aggressiveness to be the difference maker. Rybakina has plenty of power on her own, but she isn’t as comfortable sliding. So, Rybakina isn’t exactly able to play with her front foot forward. Rybakina also didn’t serve very well against Swiatek. Some of that might have to do with the Pole’s ability to return, but Ostapenko can also be a dangerous returner. If Rybakina lets her see some second serves, the Latvian will put them away.

Ostapenko also happens to be 2-1 in this head-to-head series. Rybakina did beat her 6-2, 6-4 at the Australian Open, but that came on a much faster court, and Ostapenko wasn’t in form at the time. But the Latvian is on fire right now, and this should be a completely different match. With that said, we’re taking her at plus-money odds.

Line Call: Ostapenko To Win (+130)