Bet du Jour: Karolina Muchova vs. Maria Sakkari, Roland Garros

For our first pick of the 2023 French Open, we’re rolling with world No. 42 Karolina Muchova to beat world No. 8 Maria Sakkari. This is the type of match in which the oddsmakers are trying to catch people sleeping. Sakkari is one of the top players in the world, and she’s a household name amongst casual tennis bettors at this point. However, the Greek star isn’t even favored to win this match. Both players are listed at -110.

Sakkari can be a difficult player to bet against, as she is a feisty competitor and never mails it in. So her opponents always have to work until the very last point to take her out. But Sakkari comes into this match after having lost two of her last three, and she now faces a player that has given her a lot of trouble in the past. Muchova actually beat Sakkari in straight sets at last year’s French Open, as she came away with a 7-6 (5), 7-6 (4) victory. Muchova is now 2-0 against Sakkari in clay-court matches, and it’s hard not to like the way the Czech is playing coming into this one.

Muchova made a nice run in Rome last week, where she was eventually defeated by Paula Badosa in a tight three-set match. But Badosa is one of the best clay-court players in the world, so there’s really no shame in losing a match like that. And overall, the real story of the week was that Muchova was able to pick up three victories after an early exit in Madrid. Now, she comes into this tournament with a little momentum.

Muchova plays an aggressive style from the baseline, and she really has no exploitable weakness in her game. She’s as sturdy an all-around player as there is in the women’s game, and she’s a heck of a lot better than her ranking suggests. Muchova was ranked as high as 19th in the world back in 2021, and she made it to the semifinals of the Australian Open that year. This is a player that is a lot more dangerous than people think.

I see Muchova’s forehand giving Sakkari trouble in this match, and I also believe the big difference between the two players will be on serve. Sakkari’s hold percentage this season is at 72.9%, while Muchova is holding at a 76.7% clip. Muchova also has a slightly higher break percentage than Sakkari, and the slow clay courts will only make it easier on the Czech to read her serve and pounce on it.

And if you like this play, you might want to consider throwing a little something on Muchova to win the quarter at +900 odds. The winner of this match is set up nicely to go somewhat deep in this draw, so there’s more money to be made on getting this one right. We already picked Belinda Bencic to come out of this part of the bracket at +800 odds, but grabbing Muchova is a good play, too. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Muchova faces Bencic for a spot in the semifinals. You'd then be set up nicely for a big payday, regardless of the outcome.

Bet: Muchova -110 (Bonus: Sprinkle a quarter-unit on Muchova to win Quarter 3 at +900)