2023 Roland Garros Betting Spotlight: Aryna Sabalenka

HIGHLIGHTS: Sabalenka tops Swiatek to win Madrid

A couple of weeks ago, we suggested backing Aryna Sabalenka to win the 2023 French Open at +1100. The Belarusian is now down to +650 to win it all, and that’s still a wager worth making. While Sabalenka is coming off a bad loss to Sofia Kenin in the Round of 64 at the Italian Open, it’s hard to fault her too much. Kenin is still a great player when she’s playing her best tennis, and she had it going that day. But more importantly, Sabalenka was also fresh off a title run in Madrid, so she was likely a little fatigued.

Even with the loss in Rome, Sabalenka’s clay-court season was wildly encouraging. The 25-year-old made it to the final at Stuttgart, where she lost in straight sets to Iga Swiatek. But on her way there, Sabalenka earned wins over Paula Badosa and Barbora Krejcikova, two very good clay-court players. And she got revenge for her loss to Swiatek in Madrid, where she earned a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 win in the final. Sabalenka is now 46-23 on clay in her career, and she’s 14-4 on the surface over the last 52 weeks. The latter is good for a win percentage of 77.8%.

There’s no denying that Swiatek is the best player in the world on clay, but the Pole enters this tournament after having suffered a minor injury in Rome. There’s no telling whether she’ll be at 100 percent health at Roland Garros, and Sabalenka has already shown that she can beat Swiatek on this surface. And the gap between her and Swiatek is smaller than ever.

At +650 odds, it's a great idea to back Sabalenka, who consistently goes deep in tournaments. There are certainly better movers on the dirt, but the Belarusian’s power goes a long way on this surface. She has the ability to blow the ball by her opponents, even with the courts being much slower. But her opponents aren’t quite able to do the same to her, which actually ends up improving the 25-year-old’s biggest weakness. She’s able to track down balls a bit easier on the dirt, and that gives her more of a chance in longer rallies.

As long as Sabalenka’s serve doesn’t get away from her, she should make a run to the semifinals. From there, you can either let your bet ride at +650 odds or begin hedging a bit to guarantee yourself profits. She would likely be favored against anybody other than Swiatek right now, so you’d be able to hedge at good prices, too. Let’s also not forget that Sabalenka won the most recent major. With that in mind, she now knows what it takes to win on the biggest stage.